Economists: Prices will bottom by 2013, homeownership to decline
Economists continued to predict home prices will decline only slightly in 2012,
falling 0.4 percent for the entire year, and will increase thereafter,
according to the June 2012 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, compiled from
114 responses by a diverse group of economists, real estate experts, and
investment and market strategists.
For the first time, the
individual economists surveyed were largely in agreement on the trajectory of
home prices nationally, signaling that a true bottom may be imminent.
However, a majority (56
percent) of respondents also believe that, in five years, the U.S.
homeownership rate will be below 65.4 percent, the rate recorded in the first
quarter of 2012. One in five believe the homeownership rate will be at or below
63 percent, testing or breaking the 62.9 percent rate established in 1965, the
lowest on record.
While the stronger
signals of an imminent market bottom and turn are encouraging, the expected
pace of housing recovery over the coming three years is significantly weaker
now than it was two years ago.